Shringi, Sakshi and Sharma, Harish and Rathie, Pushpa Narayan and Bansal, Jagdish Chand and Nagar, Atulya K. and Suthra, Daya Lal (2024) Predicting COVID-19 Outbreak in India using Modified SIRD Model. Applied Mathematics in Science and Engineering, 32 (1). ISSN 2769-0911
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Abstract
In this paper, the existing Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) compartmental epidemiologic process model is modified for forecasting the coronavirus effect in India. The data from India was studied for weekly fatalities, weekly infected, weekly recovered, new cases, infected and recovered individuals, Reproductive Number R0, recovery rate, death rate, and coefficient of transmission from January 30, 2020, to July 31, 2021. SARS Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 ) is the Covid strain that causes Covid
sickness (COVID-19), a respiratory ailment that triggered the outbreak of COVID-19 at the beginning of December 2019. We aim to provide a hybrid SIRD model for predicting the COVID-19 outbreak. In the proposed method, to improve the exploration ability of the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) or to avoid stagnation in the swarm, a modified Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm is used to optimize the initial
value of Infected individuals. The modified SIRD model is further applied to get the predicted values.
The data is examined on weekly basis to prevent noise. Depending on the fact, that the precise mode of transmission is highly dependent on how and when different precautions such as isolation, confinement, and other preventative measures were implemented, we put together our projections concerning satisfactory speculations based on genuine realities. The experimental results show the various trends observed in the pandemic in terms of number of peaks, increasing trend, decreasing trend, and continuous trend for infected individuals, weekly change in number of cases, weekly deaths, weekly infected, and weekly recovered cases of Covid-19. The proposed modified SIRD model could be a valuable tool for assessing the impact of government measures on COVID-19 outbreak.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Epidemiology; Grey Wolf Optimizer; Reproductive Number |
| Faculty / Department: | Faculty of Human and Digital Sciences > Mathematics and Computer Science |
| Depositing User: | Atulya Nagar |
| Date Deposited: | 22 Jan 2024 14:31 |
| Last Modified: | 30 May 2024 13:29 |
| URI: | https://hira.hope.ac.uk/id/eprint/4118 |
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